Crime Data Expert Jeff Asher Explains Record-Low Crime Rates in the U.S.

National Crime Trends

• 📉 Murder in the United States fell at the fastest rate ever recorded by the FBI in both 2023 and 2024, following a significant increase in 2020.
• 📊 The Realtime Crime Index (RTCI) shows murder is down 20% nationally through July 2025, setting up the third consecutive year of record decline.
• 🏙️ Many cities, including Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, and New Orleans, are experiencing historic lows in murder rates.
• ⚠️ Despite these declines, the speaker acknowledges that crime problems are not solved, and even the lowest US murder rate still represents thousands of tragedies.

Declining Violent and Property Crime

• ⚡ Overall reported violent and property crime are both down double-digit percentage points according to the RTCI.
• 📈 The United States' reported violent crime rate in 2025 is likely to be the lowest since 1968, and the property crime rate is expected to be the lowest on record.
• 📍 North Carolina's trends mirror national patterns, with murder and violent crime declining after peaking in 2021.

Factors Influencing Crime Reduction

• 🔑 Explaining the decline is challenging, but the speaker identifies at least six factors that must be considered.
• 🌐 The declines are widespread, occurring in nearly every category of crime across all population groups.
• ⏳ The acceleration of declines in the last two years suggests causes rooted in investments made around 2021-2022.
• 🚔 Acknowledging that many cities have fewer police officers today than when crime began to spike.
• ⚖️ The speaker notes that supposed root causes like poverty and lack of educational opportunities have not been fixed, and the nation has more guns in circulation than ever before.
• ❓ Clearance rates for most crimes remain historically low, adding complexity to understanding the trends.

Future Implications of Crime Data

• 🎯 Understanding the drivers of falling crime is critical for policymakers to implement strategies for sustained reductions.
• 💡 The current data presents a golden opportunity to better understand why crime is decreasing.