Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Data: October Preliminary Views

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• 💡 The headline consumer sentiment for October preliminary views came in at 55.0, slightly better than expectations.
• 📌 This figure is very close to the September final read of 55.1, with the current number being the lowest since May.
• 🎯 Current conditions showed a strong reading of 61.0, which was better than expected and sequentially higher than the previous month.
• ⚠️ Expectations came in at 51.2, which was lower than both expectations and the previous month's reading.

Inflation Gauges

• 📈 The one-year inflation gauge registered at 4.6%, which was lower than expected and down from 4.7% in the prior month.
• 📉 This 4.6% reading is the lowest since February, when it was 4.3%.
• 📊 The 5-to-10 year inflation expectation remained steady at 3.7%, matching both expectations and the previous month's figure.

Economic Data Context

• ⚠️ The ongoing government shutdown has led to the delay of several key economic reports, including construction spending, jobless claims, and factory orders.
• 🗓️ The CPI report scheduled for Wednesday, October 15th, may still be released, though its exact timing is uncertain.
• 📉 On a weekly basis, the current tenure settled at 409, down three basis points from 412 last week.