Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Data Analysis: October Final Reads

October Consumer Sentiment Data

• 📊 The final October consumer sentiment read came in at 55.0, a slight improvement from the mid-month estimate.
• 📉 However, the mid-month sentiment reading of 55 deteriorated to 53.6, marking the weakest level since May.
• ⚠️ Current conditions also saw a decline, moving from 61 to 58.6, the lowest since July of last year.

Inflation Expectations

• 📈 Inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years increased from 3.7 to 3.9, the highest since June.
• ⚠️ This uptick in longer-term inflation expectations occurred despite the mid-month read remaining at 4.6.

Market Reaction to Data

• 📉 Initial market reaction to cooler-than-expected CPI data included lower yields and higher equities.
• 📈 Despite some pullback, equities remained in the green by the final market close.
• ⚠️ Yields saw an increase during the session, with the 2-year yield at 346 and the 10-year yield around 401.