Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Point Since November 2022 Amid Inflation Concerns

March Consumer Sentiment Data

• 📉 The final March numbers from the University of Michigan show a decline in consumer confidence, with the headline number dropping to 57.0, the weakest since November 2022.
• ⚠️ Current conditions, while slightly up to 63.8, remain the weakest for 2024.
• 📉 Expectations fell to 52.6, marking the lowest point since July 2022.

Inflation Expectations Rise

• 📈 One-year inflation expectations increased to 5.0%, matching the level seen in November 2022.
• 📊 Five to ten-year inflation expectations rose to 4.1%, a level not seen since August 1992.

Market Reaction and Context

• 🧐 These inflation numbers are based on surveys and are considered somewhat "squishy."
• ⚠️ The market has shown minimal movement in interest rates despite the data, as it was somewhat anticipated from mid-month readings.
• 📈 The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.29% last week and is currently up four basis points, though down seven on the day.