Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon on Trump, Putin, and the Ukraine War

Trump's Meeting with Putin

• 💡 The meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was choreographed to appear as if Trump treated Putin like a "demigod" or "hero," despite Putin being an indicted war criminal.
• 🎯 Trump's actions, such as clapping and slapping Putin on the back, set the wrong tone, suggesting Putin left with his views, which then seemed to become Trump's.
• 🔑 The initial expectation was for Trump to strongly confront Putin, but metaphorically, the opposite occurred, with Putin appearing to dictate the terms.

Shifting Focus from Ceasefire to Peace Deal

• ⚡ Trump initially emphasized the necessity of an immediate ceasefire, a stance echoed by European leaders.
• ⚠️ However, the focus has shifted to a "peace deal," which aligns with Putin's objectives and suggests he is dictating the terms of negotiation.
• 📌 This shift is concerning as Russian forces are actively trying to gain more ground in the Donbas region, anticipating that a peace deal will solidify current territorial lines.

Implications for Ukraine and European Security

• 🧩 A potential peace deal may require Ukraine to surrender the Donbas region, leading to the displacement of approximately 240,000 Ukrainians.
• 🚀 In return for territorial concessions, Ukraine would ideally regain control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station and parts of Kherson.
• ⚠️ The Minsk agreements of 2015 serve as a cautionary tale, as they failed to guarantee Ukraine's security due to a lack of hard power enforcement.

US Security Guarantees and European Deterrence

• 🇺🇸 Donald Trump has suggested the US might offer security guarantees to Ukraine, a significant development that could provide a "cast iron gold-plated guarantee."
• 🛡️ While US troops are unlikely to be stationed in Ukraine, "over the horizon" capabilities would offer a powerful deterrent against further Russian aggression.
• 🇪🇺 European and British forces are expected to offer on-the-ground security to police any peace deal, reinforcing the need for a strong conventional deterrence.
• 📉 The current Russian deficit and reduced soldier bonuses suggest Putin may be preparing for peace due to financial constraints, potentially indicating a weakening military capacity.

Putin's Position and Future Stability

• 📈 Despite significant human and financial costs, Putin may present the outcome as a victory to the Russian public in the short term.
• ⚠️ However, in the long term, with soldiers returning and the war's true cost becoming apparent, Putin could face a more precarious position in the Kremlin.
• 🌍 The ultimate focus should remain on achieving peace and rebuilding Ukraine, with Europe providing a strong deterrent to prevent future Russian expansion.