Col Simon Diggins on Crippling Putin's Economy: Oil, Assets, and European Strategy

Coalition of the Willing's Effectiveness

• 💡 The recent "coalition of the willing" meeting in London offered optics over substance, with many promises on Russian assets and defense aid having been heard before.
• 🎯 The primary importance of the meeting was to reaffirm support for Ukraine amidst perceived stalled exchanges and confusion about international backing.
• ⚠️ A more significant impact on Putin requires concrete actions with clear deadlines, rather than just rhetoric.

Key Actions to Pressure Putin

• ⚡ Accelerating the weaning of Europe off Russian oil and gas is crucial, moving the current 2028 deadline forward.
• 💰 Concluding the debate on accessing frozen Russian assets and utilizing them for Ukraine's defense is a critical next step, with a potential deadline around Christmas Eve.
• 🚀 Providing long-range missiles, such as Germany's Taurus missile, is essential if the US is hesitant to supply alternatives like Tomahawks.

Navigating US-European Dynamics

• 🧩 The current dynamic involves a three-way balance between Ukraine's war effort, European allies' support, and a semi-engaged US, characterized by Biden's approach of "one dollar too little, one day too late."
• 🇺🇸 Donald Trump's potential involvement is seen as inconsistent but driven by a desire to be a peacemaker; he responds to flattery and to demonstrated commitment from European allies.
• 🤝 If European nations can solidify their strategies on frozen assets and defense provisions by Christmas, it could incentivize greater US risk-taking and joint pressure on Putin.

Russia's Security Concerns vs. NATO

• 🇷🇺 Russia's maximalist view of security involves protecting its status as a great power with close allies and a buffer of vassal states.
• 🛡️ Countries like Poland joined NATO not due to Western aggression, but because of historical invasions by Russia and the need for self-protection.
• ⚖️ Finding a compromise between Russia's maximalist ambitions and Western European countries' lack of territorial ambitions is unlikely to yield positive results and could lead to a poor outcome.