CNBC Fed Survey: Three-Way Tie for Next Fed Chair, Rate Cut Expectations

CNBC Fed Survey Insights

• 🎯 Respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with a majority expecting a September rate cut.
• 📊 A significant portion (27%) believe the Fed should cut rates in July, reflecting potential agreement with dissenting Fed governors.

Economic Outlook and Forecasts

• 📉 Recessionary expectations have decreased to 31%, down from previous months, following greater clarity on tariffs and their impact.
• 📈 The GDP forecast has been revised upward to 1.4%, an increase from earlier lows.
• 💡 The survey indicates that the Fed is expected to maintain rates above neutral even through 2026.

Next Federal Reserve Chair Candidates

• 🏆 The race to succeed Fed Chair Powell shows a three-way tie among leading candidates: Kevin Warsh (24%), Scott Besson (24%), and John Williams (22%).
• 📌 Fed Governor Chris Waller is also mentioned as a potential candidate at 14%.

Policy and Market Reactions

• 🚫 An overwhelming 84% of respondents believe President Trump will not fire Powell early before his term concludes.
• 💬 Regarding the President's criticism of the Fed, opinions are divided, with 42% suggesting it makes a rate cut less likely, while 30% believe it makes it more likely.
• 🧐 The survey suggests that respondents view tariffs as a one-time price hike rather than a precursor to broader inflation, with 51% holding this view.
• ⏳ Some respondents propose that the Fed's tough stance and patience might be the very reason tariff-driven inflation won't spread.