CNBC Fed Survey: Tariffs Here to Stay, Negative Economic Impact Feared

Survey Findings on Tariffs

• 🎯 Respondents to the CNBC Fed survey believe high tariffs are here to stay, with 60% indicating a greater than even chance of a permanent 10% across-the-board tariff.
• ⚠️ Uncertainty surrounding tariff policy is weighing on planned investment and new orders, according to Constance Hunter from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Economic Impact of Tariffs

• 📉 77% of respondents believe tariffs are negative for inflation, 91% say they are bad for unemployment, and 93% believe they are bad for growth.
• 🚫 74% of respondents do not believe tax cuts and deregulation will offset the negative impacts of tariffs.
• 🌍 73% believe the impact of tariffs and immigration policy is negative for US companies overseas, and 83% say it's negative for US assets.

Federal Reserve Policy Outlook

• 🏦 The survey suggests the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates despite the inflationary threat from tariffs.
• ⚡ This expectation is driven by the belief that economic weakness will outweigh the inflationary effects of the tariffs.