Climate Security Omissions in Trump Administration's Threat Assessment

Omission of Climate Change in Annual Threat Assessment

• 💡 The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) is the first in over a decade to omit climate change, a concerning development.
• ⚠️ This omission signals a potential politicization of climate issues within the intelligence community, extending beyond the first Trump administration.
• 🎯 The Director of National Intelligence's response to questions about the omission was a classic Washington dodge, leaving the reason for its removal unclear.
• 📉 Without climate change in the ATA, it may not receive the necessary priority or resources within the national security community.

Climate Change as a National Security Risk

• 🌍 In previous ATAs, climate change was included due to its impacts on water and food security, potentially leading to instability and conflict.
• ⚠️ Direct threats include climate hazards impacting military bases (e.g., coastal inundation, wildfires) and straining military readiness and resilience.
• 🇨🇳 Even focusing on geopolitical competition with China requires a climate lens, considering its positioning in the Arctic and securing food supplies.
• 🤝 There has been bipartisan agreement on climate security risks, with a definition codified in the National Defense Authorization Act during the first Trump administration.

Broader Government Impact and International Partnerships

• 📉 Beyond the intelligence community, there are indications of climate change being deprioritized across the government, including the elimination of programs like USAID's forward-looking climate security initiatives.
• 🇺🇸 While the Defense Department publicly discusses climate resilience, there's concern that focus may shift away from clean energy and resilience efforts.
• 🌍 The US's leadership and partnership with allies in building climate resilience abroad is at risk, potentially leaving a void that other nations like China may not fill.
• 📉 Cuts to programs like USAID's Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) could impact the US's ability to respond to global crises, affecting soft power and its role as a partner of choice.

Military Impacts and Resilience

• 🌊 Climate-driven hazards have directly impacted US military facilities, such as Typhoon Mawar in Guam and a rogue wave at Quasilin Station in the Marshall Islands, causing significant damage and interrupting operations.
• 🌲 In California, atmospheric rivers have washed out roads and cut off training at desert bases, reducing efficiency.
• 😥 Climate hazards also affect troop morale, leading to disruptions in training, family relocations, and even service members separating from the military.
• 🚒 Militaries in Canada and Australia have deployed extensively to wildfires, raising concerns about impacts on training and long-term preparedness.

Subnational Engagement and Future Outlook

• 🏘️ Subnational engagement is critical, with state National Guards playing a role in climate security through wildfire fighting and extreme weather response.
• 🤝 State partnership programs allow for international engagement on climate resilience through training and exercises with foreign militaries.
• 📉 Concerns remain about the potential politicization of disaster response resources and the impact of cuts to agencies like NOAA, which provide crucial data for the military.
• ⚠️ The administration's reaction to future major climate events impacting US military bases or domestic areas will be a key indicator of its approach to climate security risks.