Cliff Kupchan on Iran Conflict: Regime Change Risks and Strait of Hormuz Dangers

Escalation Scenarios in Iran Conflict

• ⚠️ A likely scenario involves a week to ten days of diplomacy, with the US attempting to destroy Iran's Fordo enrichment plant, leading to dramatic escalation and a spike in oil prices.
• 🚀 Other possibilities include Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US actions, or Iran's missile stockpile running low, potentially reducing the temperature of the conflict.
• 💡 A small chance exists for the current talks to succeed, though it's viewed as a "Hail Mary" by all parties involved.

Iran's Missile Capabilities

• 📉 The rate of missile salvos from Iran is already observed to be dropping, suggesting their stockpile is running low.
• ❓ While the exact number of remaining missiles is unknown in the unclassified world, it's believed they are significantly depleted.

Regime Change as a Policy

• 🚫 Regime change is not considered a verbal policy for the US under Trump, who is seen as hesitant to intervene too deeply.
• 🤔 Netanyahu might desire regime change, viewing it as finishing a historical job, but the US is not pursuing this.
• ⚠️ Historically, regime change operations have often led to unexpected and negative outcomes, with Iraq cited as a prime example of a failed state resulting from such intervention.

Israel's Perspective and Strategy

• 🎯 Israel sees a generational chance to take down its "arch enemy" and believes history is on its side, potentially leading them to pursue aggressive actions.
• 📈 This period is described as "maximum Bibi," with favorable conditions for Israel to act.

Strait of Hormuz Risks

• 🚫 Iran is unlikely to attempt closing the Strait of Hormuz because it's a lose-lose situation, severely impacting their crucial oil revenues.
• 🚨 However, a significant fear is that desperate regimes may resort to irrational acts, such as closing the Strait, especially if their nuclear assets are destroyed.