Christmas Tree Sales Indicate Slowdown in Consumer Spending: Survey Insights

Christmas Tree Sales as an Economic Indicator

• 🎄 Christmas tree sales are being used as a historic indicator to gauge consumer spending.
• 💡 Evercore ISI's annual survey, conducted for about 20 years, suggests these sales are a reliable way to measure economic activity.

Year-Over-Year Sales Performance

• 📊 This holiday season, tree sales have increased by 3% year-over-year in the three weeks since Thanksgiving.
• 📉 This is a slowdown compared to the previous year, when sales were up 7% year-over-year.
• ⚠️ This suggests consumers may be becoming more cautious with their money.

Specific Sales Trends

• 📏 Sales of 8-foot and higher trees, typically the most expensive, were flat.
• 💰 Smaller trees (six to eight feet) around $75 saw a slight drop in sales.
• 🛍️ Ancillary items like wreaths, garland, and baskets have also been selling slower.

Broader Economic Context

• 💻 Online sales over Thanksgiving were strong, but growth reportedly died off by the end of November.
• 🇨🇳 The CEO of a major artificial tree seller noted that 87% of imported Christmas decor comes from China, with price increases impacting the industry.
• 📉 Artificial tree sales are reportedly similar to real tree sales, with one company cutting orders and laying off staff.
• 💸 Prices for trees vary widely, with some sellers negotiating closer to Christmas, though exceptionally expensive trees are still being sold.
• ⏳ The government shutdown delayed the release of the November sales report, making these alternative indicators more significant.