Chris Costa on Russia's Hybrid Warfare and Designating Putin's Russia a Terrorist State

Russia's Escalating Hybrid Warfare

• ⚠️ Russia is engaging in escalating hybrid warfare tactics across Europe, including sabotage, arson, cyber intrusions, and disinformation.
• 🎯 These actions are aimed at undermining Western solidarity and achieving geopolitical goals, with recent incidents like potential aircraft downing tests and arson plots in Germany raising significant concerns.
• 🔍 The head of MI6 and MI5 have publicly acknowledged these growing threats, indicating a serious and concerning trend.

State-Sponsored Terrorism Debate

• 💡 The discussion explores whether Russia's activities, including politically motivated assassinations like the suspected killing of Prigozhin, constitute state-sponsored terrorism.
• ⚖️ While designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism would be a major escalation, it is being considered as a potential tool for leverage in diplomatic negotiations.
• 🤝 The potential designation could complicate efforts for de-escalation and negotiation, especially with a new administration potentially seeking a deal with Putin.

Path to Negotiated Settlement in Ukraine

• ⚔️ The current strategy involves a principle of negotiate, fight hard, fight hard, negotiate, with escalations seen as posturing for potential negotiations.
• 🕊️ A possible outcome is a frozen conflict, creating a figurative wall between Russian-held territories and Ukraine, with ongoing tit-for-tat unconventional warfare.
• 📉 Ukraine may have to concede some territory, but the tenability of such a deal for Ukrainians remains an open question.

Counterterrorism in a Changing Landscape

• 🛡️ The focus during the initial Trump administration was heavily on ISIS and al-Qaeda threats, with less attention on Russia.
• 📈 The current threat landscape has dramatically changed, with ISIS metastasizing in Africa and ISIS-K experiencing a renaissance.
• 🌐 The radicalization process has evolved, with online radicalization and a mix of grievances posing new challenges, necessitating a re-evaluation of counterterrorism strategies and potential deployments.

Political Appointments and Counterterrorism

• 🏛️ Concerns are raised about political appointments to key counterterrorism roles, emphasizing the need for these positions to remain apolitical and grounded in intelligence.
• 🤝 It is urged that new appointees evaluate past counterterrorism strategies and work closely with intelligence professionals to maintain confidence with foreign partners.
• 🎯 The importance of dispassionate presentation of options and consequences to the President, free from political judgment, is highlighted as crucial for effective counterterrorism.