China's Q4 2025 GDP Growth Slows to 3-Year Low, Full-Year Target Met

China's Q4 2025 Economic Performance

• 📉 China's economic growth slowed to a three-year low in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching a pace of 4.5%.
• 🎯 Despite the slowdown, the full-year economic expansion for 2025 hit the official target of 5%, matching the previous year's figure.

Drivers of Economic Growth

• 🏭 Manufacturing played a crucial role, with China capturing a record share of global demand for goods.
• 📈 Booming exports, particularly to non-US markets, offset weak domestic demand and helped achieve a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025.
• 🌍 Producers diversified their markets to mitigate the impact of tariff pressure from Washington.

Economic Vulnerabilities and Outlook

• ⚠️ Analysts highlight that the reliance on external demand exposes vulnerabilities within China's economy.
• 🏠 The economy is facing challenges from weak domestic spending, a prolonged property slump, and persistent deflationary strains.
• 🌍 The economic outlook for 2026 is further complicated by rising global trade protectionism and US President Donald Trump's economic policies.