China's Push for Tech Independence Amidst Brittle US-China Relations

Brittle US-China Relationship

• ⚠️ The relationship between the US and China is described as dangerously brittle, with risks multiplying and becoming more complex.
• 💡 Despite below-trend GDP numbers from China, it's unlikely to change their approach to upcoming meetings, as they are confident in hitting their growth targets.

China's Five-Year Plan and Tech Dependence

• 🇨🇳 The upcoming CCP Fourth Plenary will outline a five-year plan for economic and social policy.
• 🚀 A key focus of this plan is China's determination to press the gas on reducing dependence on the West for advanced technology, particularly leading-edge chips.
• 🎯 China aims to achieve this by either increasing domestic production or making do with existing resources, signaling a clear intent to reduce leverage in the high-tech sector.

Upcoming Xi-Trump Meeting

• 🤝 The agenda for the upcoming meeting in Seoul is considered fairly set, focusing on short-term tradeoffs and horse-trading.
• 💬 Potential discussion points include rhetorical and material support for Taiwan as an ask or tradeoff from China.
• 🇺🇸 President Trump has signaled his focus on soybeans, fentanyl, and critical minerals, providing basic blocks for the meeting's agenda.