China's Military Purges and Trade Negotiations: Expert Analysis

Xi Jinping's Control and Military Purges

• 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping is purging top generals, charged with corruption, which Michael Pillsbury suggests is a factional conflict rather than a violent power struggle.
• 💡 Pillsbury notes that American experts have historically missed significant power struggles within China, citing the 1976 "Gang of Four" arrest as an example.

Trump's Unique Insight into Chinese Leadership

• 🤝 President Trump has had five summits with Xi Jinping and possesses an "extraordinary knowledge" of Chinese top politics.
• 📖 The Chinese leadership, including Xi Jinping, has reportedly read a Chinese translation of Trump's book, "The Art of the Deal".
• ⚠️ Both the US and China are making mistakes in understanding each other's political landscapes and power struggles.

Stalled Trade Negotiations with China

• 🇲🇾 US trade representatives are meeting with Chinese counterparts in Malaysia, but Pillsbury believes no deal is imminent.
• 🚫 Past negotiations have been marked by false reports and a lack of joint statements, indicating a lack of progress.
• 📈 Pillsbury suggests that until the US imposes significant tariffs, potentially around 50%, China will likely continue to stall for time.
• 🧐 The current mystery is whether the US can exert enough pressure to secure a meaningful trade deal at the upcoming summit.