Chicago PMI Data: 47.6 Shows Improvement but Remains Below 50

Chicago PMI Data Analysis

• 📊 The March Chicago PMI came in at 47.6, exceeding the estimated 43.6.
• ⚠️ Despite the better-than-expected figure, this marks the 16th consecutive month the PMI has been below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction.
• 📈 This reading of 47.6 is the highest since November 2023, when the PMI was last above 50.

Market Reaction to PMI Data

• 📉 Normally, an improved PMI might lead to a rise in yields, but this is not occurring.
• ⚠️ The current red in equities, particularly the NASDAQ down 2.5%, is driving a flight to safety.
• ⚡ This flight to safety has pushed two-year yields down to 3.86%, a decrease of five basis points, potentially marking the lowest yield close since early October of last year.