Chatham House Experts Discuss Global Trends and Flashpoints in 2026

Global Geopolitical Outlook for 2026

• 💡 Experts anticipate a complex Phase Two of the Gaza ceasefire, requiring significant concessions from Hamas and Israel, alongside the emergence of an international stabilization force.
• 🎯 The war in Ukraine continues to test the defense of a rule-based order, with a focus on preventing borders from being changed by force and securing crucial funding, including Russian sovereign assets.
• ⚠️ In Sudan, there is no optimism for an immediate end to the war, highlighting the urgent need for genuine political dialogue, external pressure on warring parties, and stopping the war economy driven by arms and resource financing.

Economic Trends and Challenges

• 📈 A key question for 2026 is whether countries outside the US and China will create a new global trade system, aiming to sustain trade and investment while avoiding US protectionism and Chinese subsidies.
• 🇨🇳 China's current strategy of strengthening its industrial sector and boosting exports is deemed unsustainable long-term, necessitating measures to boost domestic consumption and allow its exchange rate to appreciate.
• 📊 The global economy faces challenges from protectionism and trade imbalances, particularly with China's export surplus leading to increased defensive measures from other nations.

Navigating the Trump Administration

• 🇺🇸 The Trump administration's actions will loom large, with questions surrounding his ability to reset US-China relations amidst tariffs, manage a volatile global economy, and mediate new conflicts.
• 🤝 International leaders, including those in the Middle East and Africa, are learning to manage Trump's transactional instincts through bilateral deals, coalitions, and diversification of international ties.
• 🌍 The impact of Trump's administration extends to regional flashpoints like Latin America and the Middle East, influencing stability and the approach to ongoing conflicts.

Glimmers of Hope and Future Prospects

• 🌱 In Africa, there's hope for increased intra-Africa trade, political renewal driven by younger generations demanding accountability, and a pathway towards civilian-led governance and economic reconstruction in Sudan.
• 🚀 Technological innovation, particularly in defense against aggressive states, is seen as a crucial element for democracies to protect the rule-based order, as demonstrated by Ukraine's advancements.
• 💡 Economists express optimism for economic stabilization and growth in 2026, partly due to reduced uncertainty and the positive, productivity-enhancing impact of artificial intelligence.
• 🕊️ In the Middle East, the focus is on increased regional coordination to manage and settle conflicts, with the outcome of Israeli elections potentially altering the region's direction towards solutions and integration.