CFP Rankings Reaction: Josh Pate Analyzes First College Football Playoff Release

Initial CFP Rankings Analysis

• 🎯 The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season feature a heavy SEC and Big Ten presence, with three Big 12 teams in the top 13, challenging the notion of a "one-bid league."
• 💡 The ACC may also be a one-bid league, despite having five teams in the top 25, with its highest-ranked team at 14th.

Overhauled Criteria and Strength of Record

• 🔑 The committee claimed to overhaul criteria, emphasizing strength of schedule and record strength, minimizing penalties for losing to good teams and rewards for beating weak ones.
• 📊 Georgia Tech, despite a trash schedule but only one loss, was ranked 17th, suggesting the new criteria are being applied to de-emphasize wins against weaker opponents.
• ⚠️ Iowa, with two losses including a competitive one to Indiana (ranked #2), was placed at 20th, showing a potential shift from purely win-loss records compared to the AP poll.

Miami vs. Notre Dame Ranking Discrepancy

• 🧐 A key point of contention is Notre Dame (10th) being ranked significantly higher than Miami (18th), despite Miami having defeated Notre Dame earlier in the season.
• 🧠 The speaker speculates this could be due to committee members punishing Miami for not meeting preseason expectations, a factor not officially part of the criteria.
• 📈 The committee's emphasis on eyeball test and perceived team trajectory (one team trending up, the other down) is questioned, as the focus should be on current performance.

Oregon's Ranking and Quality Wins

• 📉 Oregon, ranked 9th, is lower than its AP poll ranking, raising questions about its path forward, especially regarding its quality wins.
• 🏆 The win at Penn State, initially seen as a crowning achievement, might retroactively lose value if Penn State finishes with a poor record, a practice the speaker criticizes.
• ❓ The speaker argues for crystallizing a game's value at the time it occurs, rather than retroactively adjusting credit based on subsequent team performance.

Big 12 and SEC Playoff Hopes

• 🚀 Utah at 13th suggests the Big 12 could be a two-bid league, with Utah potentially securing an at-large bid without winning the conference.
• 🤔 The potential for a three-loss SEC team to make the playoff is discussed, particularly concerning Texas and Oklahoma, who have tough remaining schedules.
• 🌟 The speaker believes the door is open for multiple Big 12 teams and potentially a three-loss SEC team, highlighting the long road ahead in November.