Can Warfare Go Green? Climate Change and Military Strategy

Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier

• 🌡️ Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing conflicts and increasing the likelihood of new ones.
• 🥵 Extreme heat, like the 50°C conditions experienced in Iraq, physically impairs soldiers' ability to operate and can lead to heatstroke, demonstrating the direct impact of climate on military effectiveness.
• 🌍 The report by Richard Nuji highlights that rising seas, extreme weather, and desertification will almost certainly lead to more conflict, which in turn damages the planet further.

Military Spending and Emissions

• 💰 Western economies are increasing military spending, with NATO aiming for 5% of GDP by 2035, a move that could significantly boost emissions from a carbon-intensive industry.
• ⛽ The US military is a major oil consumer, and continued reliance on fossil fuel-dependent equipment hinders efforts to combat climate change.
• ⚠️ Defense departments have historically escaped the scrutiny faced by businesses regarding their carbon emissions.

Dual-Use Technologies and Green Innovation

• 💡 Militaries can leverage climate-focused technologies to become more effective, creating a win-win scenario.
• ✈️ Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a key area, with NATO agreeing on protocols for equipment compatibility, sending a market signal for its development and adoption.
• 🔋 The US defense department is actively seeking advanced battery technologies, driven by their use in modern warfare like drones in Ukraine.
• ⚡ Dual-use technology is crucial; innovations in green tech can serve both civilian and military purposes, such as electric drives improving vehicle performance, silence, and handling.

Resilience and Energy Independence

• 🔌 Overseas operational bases face risks from fuel delivery; alternative power sources like micronuclear reactors (e.g., Rolls-Royce's containerized units) can provide nearly unlimited fuel, reducing the need for dangerous convoys.
• ☀️ Permanent bases can enhance resilience through solar, hydro, and wind power, ensuring operational capability even during national grid blackouts.
• 🛡️ A nation that is more self-sufficient in energy, particularly through green alternatives, offers a significant advantage to its defense capabilities.

Integrating Climate into Military Processes

• ⚙️ The UK Ministry of Defense is integrating climate change adaptation into its processes, considering equipment lifecycles (up to 40 years) and future environmental conditions (e.g., 50-55°C norms).
• 🔄 Changing military culture around sustainability is vital, with recycling initiatives and exploring alternatives to fragile supply chains for critical materials like rare earths.
• 🤝 Militaries can collaborate on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) concepts and equipment, fostering international cooperation and potentially de-escalating geopolitical tensions.

Evolving Role of Militaries in Climate Response

• 🌊 Militaries are increasingly deployed for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) due to extreme weather events, as seen with Pakistan's military response to floods.
• 🛠️ Honing skills and acquiring the right equipment for HADR missions is essential, offering a secondary purpose and valuable training for military personnel.
• 🌐 Collaboration among militaries on HADR can build trust and understanding, potentially influencing political relations.