Can Saquon Barkley & Derrick Henry Defy Regression in 2025 Fantasy Football?

Regression Risks for Veteran Running Backs

• 🎯 Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are discussed regarding their potential for regression in the 2025 fantasy football season due to their age and past workloads.
• 📊 Barkley accumulated over 2100 total yards, with nearly 2300, and had almost 500 total touches last year, a significant workload.
• 📉 Historically, the previous two times Barkley had at least 350 touches, his subsequent season saw worse numbers and fewer games played.
• ⚠️ Eight other 2,000-yard rushers have all declined by over 500 yards the following season, with six seeing a drop of over 800 yards.

Saquon Barkley's Fantasy Outlook

• 📉 Barkley's historical precedent suggests significant regression, with a prop bet of 1500 rushing yards being potentially achievable if he only loses 500 yards from his previous total.
• 📌 The speaker expresses concern about Barkley's potential to be a disappointment due to historical trends and workload.
• 💡 Despite concerns, if Barkley is available as the third-best running back in the middle of round one, it might be a consideration, but he is not a target for drafts.

Derrick Henry's Performance and Outlook

• 📈 Derrick Henry's career shows a significant drop from 2,270 yards in 16 games to 937 yards in 8 games the following year, though he did suffer a foot injury.
• 🏃‍♂️ Henry's yards per carry have fluctuated but averaged an impressive 5.9 last year, even in a different scheme.
• 🤔 The speaker admits to not drafting Derrick Henry in any mock drafts so far for 2025, questioning their own strategy.
• 🥈 If picking 10th overall, the speaker would take a receiver in round one, and if Henry was available in round two, they would likely take him over players like Drake London or Bucky Irving, but not over AJ Brown or Nico Collins.
• 🚀 Henry's average draft position is currently around pick 14.5 in the second round, higher than anticipated.