Can Putin's War Economy Survive Ukrainian Attacks? | Philip Ingram Q&A

Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refining and storage facilities are significantly reducing Russia's capacity, with estimates suggesting a 17% reduction in refining capacity.
• 💡 These strikes, potentially enhanced by new weapons like the Flamingo missile with its 3,000 km range, aim to cripple Putin's financial resources and impact domestic fuel availability.
• ⛽ Restrictions on fuel, such as limited liters of petrol and long queues, are bringing the war's economic impact home to Russian citizens.

Strategic Impact of Operational Level Attacks

• 🎯 By targeting the operational level of warfare, Ukraine is undermining Russia's ability to fund its conflict and maintain its tactical operations.
• ⚔️ This strategy is crucial as Ukraine may not be able to win a direct tactical battle against Russia's paper strength.
• ⚡ Special operations and drone attacks are effectively influencing Russia's war-making capabilities.

International Military Support for Ukraine

• 🤝 The idea of a 'coalition of the willing' deploying forces to western Ukraine is discussed, but political hurdles remain.
• ⚠️ Deploying troops while Russia and Ukraine are actively fighting is politically sensitive and could escalate the conflict, making a peace or ceasefire agreement a prerequisite for such support.

Donald Trump's Diplomatic Proposals

• 🗣️ Donald Trump's suggestions for bilateral and trilateral talks involving Putin and Zelensky are seen as soundbites likely not to be heeded by Putin.
• 🤔 It remains to be seen if Trump will maintain his tacit support for Putin's views or change his stance.

Potential for Unrest and Coup in Russia

• 📉 Skepticism is growing about Putin's ability to withstand the deteriorating Russian economy, with concerns about running out of money and pervasive corruption.
• 💰 The loyalty of security forces like the FSB, police, and military could waver if they stop receiving payments, potentially leading to a coup.
• ⚖️ While oligarchs currently support Putin due to their dependence on his regime, they might unite to elect a successor if he were to fall, similar to papal elections.
• 📈 The situation is being closely watched for signs of unrest, though current evidence of oligarch pressure is limited.