Can Putin Be Trusted? Ex-Diplomat John Herbst on Putin's Tactics with Trump

Putin's Negotiation Tactics

• 🎯 Vladimir Putin, a former KGB agent, is described as adept at manipulating people, a skill he aims to use on President Trump.
• 💡 Putin reportedly prefers direct negotiations with Trump, bypassing traditional diplomatic channels, to ensure his message reaches the President directly.
• 🔑 The former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, states unequivocally that Putin cannot be trusted, citing his history of breaking treaties and commitments.

Analysis of Putin's Stance on Ukraine

• 🇷🇺 A former Russian diplomat suggests Putin has no interest in a ceasefire, believing he can win through continued fighting.
• 📈 Putin is perceived as confident that Trump is more interested in a peace deal than in Ukraine's sovereignty.
• ⚠️ Putin's stated concerns about a ceasefire, such as who gives orders and enforces compliance, are seen as secondary to his primary goal of taking control of Ukraine.

Trump's Potential Role and Putin's Perceptions

• 🤝 Putin seeks assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO and will be demilitarized, aspects that Trump has reportedly conceded to some extent.
• ❓ While Trump has alluded to secret leverage over Putin, Herbst suggests Putin may also feel a weariness with Trump, understanding that crossing him could have negative consequences.
• 🇺🇦 Trump's ideas for deterring Russian aggression include placing European troops in Ukraine and sending arms, which contrasts with Putin's demands for Ukrainian demilitarization.
• 📉 The analysis suggests that if Trump agrees to terms that allow Putin to gain control of Ukraine, it would be a detrimental outcome for Trump.