Can China Convince Putin to Ceasefire in Ukraine? | FRANCE 24 English

China's Role in Ukraine Conflict

• 🇨🇳 China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi is in Russia to meet with his counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, with Ukraine being a significant agenda item.
• 🇪🇺 European countries, including France, hope China will use its influence to persuade Putin to engage in extensive ceasefire talks.
• ❓ It is unlikely that China will push Russia too hard, as they generally adhere to a principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs.

China-Russia Relations and Trade

• 🤝 Relations between China and Russia have strengthened significantly since the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin before the 2022 Beijing Olympics.
• 📈 Bilateral trade reached a record $223.7 billion in 2024, with Russian exports slightly exceeding Chinese ones, though some Chinese exports may be rerouted to circumvent sanctions.
• 💡 China has provided an economic lifeline to Russia, preventing its economy from collapsing, which means neither country can afford a major rift.

China's Stance on Neutrality and Accusations

• ⚖️ China officially claims neutrality in the Ukraine war, but the West remains unconvinced, viewing its impassiveness as active support for Moscow's narrative that NATO enlargement is a cause of the war.
• 🛰️ The West also accuses China of providing material support for Russia's war efforts, which China denies.
• 🚫 China abstains from UN motions condemning the invasion, a stance that does not convince the West, though Ukraine remains cautious about criticizing China due to potential future reliance.

US Policy and China's Strategic Concerns

• 🇺🇸 US President Donald Trump is reportedly angered by Putin and threatens secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers if Moscow hinders efforts to end the Ukraine war.
• 🔄 Trump's approach is seen by some as a 'reverse Nixon,' aiming to exploit a rift between Russia and the US, contrasting with Nixon's opening to China during a Sino-Soviet rift.
• 🌏 While China may advocate for a multilateral world order, there's a risk of being sidelined in the US-Russia relationship. Trump's rhetoric towards European allies, suggesting they cannot always rely on US support, is also noted, with China watching to see if this translates to a reduced US focus in Asia.