Brookings' O'Hanlon: Two-State Solution for Israel-Palestine is a 'Long-Shot Proposition'

The Two-State Solution's Diminished Prospects

• 🎯 The idea of a Palestinian state has been central to US Middle East diplomacy for decades but is increasingly unrealistic.
• ⚠️ The events of October 7th, 2023, have further pushed the prospects for a two-state solution in an unrealistic direction.
• 💡 While Israel has significantly degraded Hamas, the core concepts of an international force securing Gaza for reconstruction and the eventual creation of a Palestinian political authority remain theoretical.

Obstacles to a Viable Plan

• 🔑 Securing the disarmament of Hamas, finding countries willing to deploy military forces into Gaza, and convincing Israel to accept the actions of these international forces are all extremely unlikely individually.
• 📉 When these unlikely propositions are combined, the plan is not expected to work, despite the desire for it to succeed.
• 🗺️ The fundamental idea of a Palestinian state has become a divisive issue within Israel, with increased reluctance to countenance a territory controlled by Palestinians where groups like Hamas could infiltrate.

Netanyahu's Stance and Trump's Meeting

• ⚖️ Israeli politics have shifted post-October 7th, making it difficult for Israelis to accept the potential for Palestinian-controlled territory to harbor militant groups.
• 🗣️ While Netanyahu may pay lip service to the long-term idea of a Palestinian state when meeting President Trump, he is expected to focus on short-term obstacles.
• 🌍 Key obstacles Netanyahu will likely highlight include the lack of countries volunteering for an international force in Gaza and the challenges of disarming and monitoring Hamas.