Bret Oliver's Investment Strategy: Relative Performance in Commodities & Metals

Investment Strategy & Market View

• 💡 Bret Oliver's firm, Oliver MSA, focuses on relative performance of market sectors against the broader S&P 500 to guide investment decisions.
• 🎯 The approach helps identify which assets are likely to outperform even in an "everything bull market" where liquidity drives all prices up.
• 🧠 They believe the market is often emotional and wrong, suggesting opportunities in "hated" stocks with strong chart potential.

Precious Metals & Mining Stocks

• 📈 Gold and silver miners have shown strong relative performance against the S&P 500 since early 2025, breaking out of a 10-year base in November.
• 🚀 Despite recent price runs, these mining stocks are seen as having significant upside to compensate for years of underperformance, with gold miners potentially doubling against gold.
• 💰 Silver miners are expected to outperform gold miners, following a similar shift in strategy by investors like Rick Rule.

Broader Commodity Bull Market

• 📊 A broader commodity bull market is underway, with industrial metals like copper, platinum, palladium, lithium, rare earths, and steel showing breakouts.
• ⚡ The energy sector (XLE) is anticipated to join this trend, despite a long-term downtrend against the S&P 500 since 2010.
• ✅ This shift reflects a move towards assets needed to produce goods, contrasting with past financial engineering.

Silver's Outperformance & Correction

• 🥈 Silver broke out against gold in November, signaling a new regime where silver is expected to lead.
• 📉 A recent correction in silver (down 40% vs. gold's 20%) is viewed as a healthy back-test of the breakout level, not an end to the rally.
• 🚀 Oliver MSA anticipates silver will reverse and favor silver for several more months, with a potential target of at least $200.

Bitcoin and HydroGraph Clean Power

• ⚠️ Oliver MSA maintains a bearish to neutral stance on Bitcoin, noting its breakdown below the three-quarter average in November and hitting a $60,000 downside target.
• 🔍 For HydroGraph Clean Power (HGRAF), technical analysis is limited; the stock has been consolidating between $1.60 and $3.00.
• 📉 A key support level for HGRAF is $2.00, with a break below it signaling further short-term downside, while holding above 30-week or 100-day averages suggests consolidation.