Breakingviews 2026 Predictions: The Far Side of the Boom

The "Far Side of the Boom" Metaphor

• 🌕 The book's title, "Far Side of the Boom," uses a Pink Floyd album reference and a moon with an exploding firework to symbolize the current economic climate.
• 🥳 The metaphor likens the situation to 2 a.m. at a party, facing two potential outcomes: a messy decline or a final celebratory push.
• 📈 The overall sentiment leans marginally bullish, tempered with significant caution, suggesting a complex year ahead.

Reviewing Past Predictions

• ✅ Breakingviews successfully predicted several events from the previous year, including market reactions to trade wars and specific M&A activities.
• 🎯 The goal of predictions is not perfect accuracy but to offer provocative and entertaining insights into plausible future events.
• ⏳ Some predictions, like an OpenAI IPO or Intel takeover, may still play out but on different timelines than initially imagined.

Key Predictions for 2026

• 🤝 The biggest M&A deal ever is forecasted, with potential consolidation in sectors like finance (e.g., UBS in the US).
• ⚡ A possible military flashpoint between Russia and Europe in Poland is a scary but plausible scenario.
• 🎓 The traditional college degree may face obsolescence as AI capabilities grow, potentially shifting career paths towards trades.
• 📉 A pullback in the AI data center market is anticipated, though not a total AI bust.

Regional Outlooks

• 🇮🇳 In India, contemplation of life after Narendra Modi's long tenure is expected to begin.
• 🇨🇳 China's stock market is predicted to have a good year, driven by leadership efforts to rationalize overcapacity in industries like electric vehicles.
• 🛡️ A Russian airspace violation over Poland could be the catalyst for Europe to significantly increase defense spending and stand on its own feet.

The Future of Education and Work

• 💰 The high cost of college degrees in countries like the US is increasingly questioned as AI offers alternative skill acquisition.
• 🛠️ A potential narrowing of the salary gap between white-collar jobs and skilled trades (like plumbers and electricians) is foreseen.
• 🤖 AI's increasing utility may lead students to question the ROI of traditional degrees, favoring vocational paths.

Predictions Likely to Manifest Quickly

• 📊 A compression in government bond yields is expected to occur relatively quickly.
• 🗣️ The shift from typing prompts to talking to AI models (audio bots) is anticipated to gain traction rapidly.
• 📉 A continued grim outlook for Oracle is also predicted to play out swiftly.