Boeing Jet Crash, US Economic Outlook, Tariffs, and Infant Formula Manufacturing

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Crash in India

• ✈️ A Boeing 787 Dreamliner operated by Air India crashed shortly after takeoff in India, resulting in the deaths of all 242 people on board.
• 💥 The aircraft reached an altitude of 625 feet before plummeting to the ground in a massive fireball, crashing into a residential building that housed a medical college hostel.
• 🔍 Investigations will be led by India, with input from the FAA, NTSB, Boeing, GE (engine manufacturer), and the UK's air accident investigation board.
• 📉 Initial market reactions saw Boeing shares down, but it's too early to assign blame to Boeing or GE as the aircraft was over 11 years old.

US Economic and Inflation Outlook

• 📊 Recent US economic data, including CPI and PPI, indicate muted inflation, with the producer price index rising only 0.1% month-over-month in May.
• 📉 Services prices have also shown softness, suggesting a potential for a soft reading in core PCE, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
• 📈 The economy is described as being in a disinflationary environment, with inflation having peaked in 2022 and continuing to cool, albeit slower than hoped.
• 🏦 This disinflationary trend, coupled with a slowdown in the labor market, suggests the next move for the Fed is likely a cut, with potential timing in July or September.
• 📉 The GDP outlook for the remainder of the year is projected at around 1.5%, characterized as subpar but avoiding a recession.

Global Tariffs and Trade Policy

• 📜 President Trump plans to send letters to trading partners within two weeks to set unilateral tariff rates ahead of a July 9th deadline.
• ⚖️ The current approach involves a 10% baseline tariff on most countries, with potential exemptions for sectors impacting consumer prices like automobiles and technology.
• 🤝 Negotiations with various countries are ongoing, with mixed results reported, impacting the potential for specific examples to be made before the deadline.
• 🏛️ A key focus in Washington is the upcoming release of legislation text for President Trump's tax bill, particularly concerning tax credits for industries like solar and wind.

Infant Formula Manufacturing and Policy

• 🍼 The Infant Formula Made in America Act of 2025 aims to incentivize domestic manufacturing to diversify and break up the concentrated market following the 2022 shortage.
• 🏭 Building new infant formula manufacturing facilities in the US is expensive, taking around three years and costing $60-$150 million.
• 🇺🇸 Currently, over 10% of infant formula in the US is imported, a significant increase from less than 1% pre-shortage.
• 💰 The proposed bill includes production tax credits to help bring down costs and ensure high-quality formula can be sourced and made domestically.
• 💡 Bobbie, a mom-founded company, recently launched the first USDA organic whole milk infant formula made in Ohio and emphasizes continuous innovation and quality.