Bob Curley on 2025 Dealmaking and M&A Trends for 2026

2025 Dealmaking Surge

• 🚀 Global M&A reached near-record volumes in 2025, driven by a strong second-half surge, totaling $3.6 trillion.
• 💡 Expectations are for a significant increase in company exits through 2026, beginning with IPOs and expanding into a more robust M&A market.

Innovation Banking Performance

• ✨ Western Alliance Bank, particularly its innovation banking division, experienced a fantastic year in 2025, exceeding optimistic projections.
• 📈 The strong finish to 2025 has created a positive outlook and a solid foundation for dealmaking in the upcoming year.

Funding and Exit Strategies

• 💰 The spigot for earlier-stage companies in the innovation sector has reopened, with many successfully raising capital in late Q3 and Q4 of 2025.
• 🏦 Both the IPO and M&A markets have shown significant recovery, increasing liquidity and investor optimism about future exits.
• 🔑 Venture debt plays a crucial role in extending runways for early-stage companies, allowing them to achieve milestones before seeking further funding, often with less dilutive equity attachments like warrant coverage.

Sector Trends and AI Integration

• 🤖 AI is a consistent backbone across various sectors, though its application ranges from machine learning and automation to more sophisticated uses.
• 🔬 In medical and life sciences, AI adoption is accelerating, and in the energy sector, the focus has shifted from just 'clean tech' to 'energy tech,' emphasizing broader energy sources at compelling prices.
• 🎯 Applied AI is demonstrating tangible gains by focusing on specific company problems and delivering a clear return on investment (ROI).

Navigating the AI Hype

• ⚠️ There's a caution against the broad application of the 'AI tag,' similar to the dot-com era, requiring a deeper understanding of a company's comparative differential and its longevity.
• 🔍 The focus is shifting towards sectors where applied AI offers an immediate ROI for the ultimate enterprise client.