Bloomberg Surveillance: January 23rd, 2026 - Geopolitics, Tech, and Trade

Geopolitical Rupture vs. Political Noise

• ⚡ Terry Haines views recent events primarily as political noise serving individual purposes, rather than a fundamental rupture in alliances.
• ⚠️ Haines suggests Mark Carney's actions, while serving domestic political aims, risk turning him into a figure like Fidel Castro by flirting with picking superpowers.
• 🌍 Zelenskyy's speech at Davos is highlighted as validating US frustration with Europe's commitment to its allies and responsibilities.

US Strategy in Greenland and Arctic Security

• 💡 The US focus on Greenland is attributed not to Trump's perceived foolishness, but to elevated geopolitical risk and a strategic realignment to counter China.
• ⛏️ Key US interests in Greenland are identified as improving national security in the Arctic and gaining access to rare earth minerals.
• 📉 Markets are more concerned with the 'what' and 'why' of geopolitical moves than the 'how,' having adapted to Trump's methods over time.

Intel's Manufacturing and Foundry Challenges

• 📉 Intel's shares plunged due to revenue and earnings falling below expectations, coupled with a disappointing forecast.
• ⚙️ CEO Pat Gelsinger acknowledged ongoing struggles with manufacturing and the long-term effort required to build a foundry business.
• ⚠️ HSBC's downgrade cited execution issues and lack of visibility in Intel's external customer pipeline for its foundry business.
• 📈 While server CPU demand remains strong, Intel's guidance suggests internal production and execution issues are hindering its ability to meet demand.

Nvidia, China, and Global AI Chip Market

• 🇨🇳 Reports suggest China may allow Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance to prep orders for Nvidia's H200 chips.
• 📊 Analysts generally believe Nvidia can achieve significant data center revenue without China contributing significantly to its growth.
• ⏳ China's long-term goal is to develop its own domestic chip-making capabilities to increase self-sufficiency, posing a longer-term overhang for companies like Nvidia.
• 💡 The efficiency of AI language models is noted, suggesting a potential shift towards not relying solely on the highest-end chips.

US-UK Trade Relations and Business Sentiment

• ✅ Businesses are relieved that threatened tariffs on European allies were walked back, though the episode was concerning.
• 🛡️ Companies have rebuilt business models to assume permanently higher export costs to the US due to existing tariffs.
• 🔄 There's a longer-term re-evaluation of supply chains, with some moves to increase manufacturing within the US and de-risk supply chains.
• 📉 The US-UK trade relationship is graded as a 'B-C,' with difficulties in translating broad agreements into concrete legal treaties due to differing expectations.