Bloomberg Surveillance: 2026 Market Outlook, Media Deals, and Affordability

2026 Market Outlook and Economic Forecasts

• 📈 Christian Nolting of Deutsche Bank anticipates 2026 to be another constructive year for markets, despite expecting continuing market volatility.
• 💡 AI is viewed not as a bubble but as a structural boom, driving constructive outlooks for the coming year.
• 🇺🇸 The US remains the epicenter of constructive change due to higher productivity, which is not expected to change significantly in the short term.
• 📉 Inflation is projected to remain a topic, with 10-year US treasuries potentially staying around 4.15% over the next 12 months, and inflation forecasted to slightly increase from 2.8% to 2.9%.
• 🇪🇺 Europe, particularly Germany, is expected to see growth improve to 1.3-1.5% in 2026, driven by fiscal policy rather than ECB monetary policy.

Media Landscape and Regulatory Hurdles

• 🎬 President Trump has weighed in on the Netflix $72 billion deal to buy Warner Brothers Discovery, citing potential antitrust concerns and suggesting it could face approval difficulties.
• ⚖️ The deal's approval hinges on how Netflix defines the market beyond traditional media, potentially including platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram to demonstrate less dominance.
• 🤔 Paramount Sky Dance remains a point of interest, with questions about whether they will make a more aggressive bid or pursue a hostile approach towards shareholders.
• 🍿 For companies like Paramount Sky Dance and Comcast, acquiring content is seen as more existential to their future than it is for Netflix.
• 🎬 Regarding movie theaters, while not dead, the Netflix acquisition poses a new threat to theatrical releases, raising questions about the future window for Warner Brothers Discovery content.

Affordability, Fiscal Policy, and Healthcare

• 🗣️ Affordability is identified as the driving issue for voters and the current administration, with a focus on delivering a prosperity message beyond just conquering prices.
• 💰 The administration believes it can address affordability through regulatory relief and tariff negotiations, with tariffs being a significant drag on the economy.
• 🚫 Messaging on affordability needs calibration, avoiding the