Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, EV Tax Credits, China Economy, and Women in Finance

US Economic Outlook and Labor Market

• 📉 The September jobs report is anticipated to show around 55,000 jobs added, with a potential slowdown due to government workers rolling off payrolls.
• ⚠️ Corporate profits were revised down significantly, suggesting potential tempering of expansion, investment, and hiring plans, with small business capital expenditure plans at recessionary lows.
• 🏭 Manufacturing and construction sectors continue to shed jobs, with no immediate boost seen from industrial policy or tariffs, leading to a growth-negative story.
• 📊 Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted serious risks to the economy, including persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, noting a treacherous balancing act between labor supply and demand.

US Electric Vehicle Market Impact

• ⚡ The expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers is expected to cause a significant drop in EV sales.
• 🚗 Automakers like GM, Nissan, and Acura are adjusting production and discontinuing models in response to the credit's expiry.
• 💸 Ford continues to lose money on its EV business, with delays in launching more affordable pickup trucks, while Stellantis is also pushing back EV launch plans.
• 💡 The end of the credit signals a transition for the EV industry, requiring a shift from monetary incentives to addressing consumer concerns about high prices and charging infrastructure.

China's Economic Performance and Trade

• 🇨🇳 China's economic results over the past year have been mixed, with strong stock market performance but continued fundamental economic weakness.
• 📉 Official PMI data is expected to remain in contraction territory, reflecting an ongoing anti-involution campaign to rein in excessive competition and overcapacity.
• 📈 China is on pace for a record trade surplus, with excess production in areas like EVs and solar panels being exported overseas.
• 🤖 Despite US-China trade tensions, including the TikTok situation, Beijing's focus is on demonstrating protection of Chinese interests and technology.
• ⚠️ Deflation is a significant concern, with negative consumer prices and a housing market downturn impacting household wealth and demand, while overcapacity fuels price cuts.

Women in Finance and Global Markets

• 👩‍💼 The Bloomberg Women, Money, and Power conference in London will focus on critical issues in global finance, featuring influential female leaders.
• 💰 Women's control of US assets is projected to reach $34 trillion by 2030, highlighting their increasing financial decision-making power.
• 📊 Discussions will cover real estate, consumer banking, private markets, and investing, with insights from leaders like Jane Fraser of Citigroup and Julia Hoget of the London Stock Exchange.
• 🏦 Central banks globally have more women in leadership roles, including Christine Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel at the ECB, and Cla Lombardelli at the Bank of England, influencing monetary policy decisions.
• 📈 Efforts are underway to boost listings in London and encourage retail investing, addressing the significant gap compared to US retail investor participation.