Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend: 2026 Economic Outlook for Commodities, Housing, Europe, and Australia

2026 Commodity Market Outlook

• ⚠️ Gold's rapid ascent in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, raises concerns about a potential "normal back and fill" to $3500, despite momentum suggesting $5000.
• 📉 Crude oil is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching lows of $40 a barrel in 2026, with volatility expected due to sharp short-covering rallies.
• ⚡ The disparity between gold's performance and crude oil's decline is the widest ever, signaling a global recessionary trajectory.
• 💡 Energy demand from AI is more closely linked to silver and copper due to their conductivity, with natural gas prices expected to remain below $4 due to elastic supply.
• 🇨🇳 China's economic outlook, particularly its 10-year yield at 1.83% versus the US at over 4%, is a key factor, with a significant demand-pull economic recovery facing tariffs deemed unlikely.

US Housing Market Forecast for 2026

• 📉 Despite a pullback in mortgage rates to the low 6% range, demand for housing has not seen a material increase due to economic and labor market uncertainty.
• 🏠 The resale market is expected to see modest growth in 2026 with more inventory and moderating prices, while new home prices are projected to decrease due to builders shifting product mix and using sales incentives.
• 🏗️ Housing starts are expected to be lower in 2026 as builders work through existing inventory and face soft demand.
• 💰 Builder margins are expected to be squeezed due to lower backlogs, continued reliance on incentives like mortgage rate buydowns, and outright base price reductions.
• 📈 Valuations for homebuilder stocks are not compelling, with a cloud of uncertainty over demand and housing policy impacting the sector.

European Culinary and Cultural Trends

• 🍽️ Despite consumers feeling squeezed by the cost of living, there's a continued appetite for experiences and indulgence, with some restaurants reporting an upturn in bookings.
• 🍸 Martinis have been a significant trend, with many establishments featuring dedicated martini menus.
• ✈️ The travel industry is seeing a shift from