Bloomberg Daybreak Europe: Putin-Zelensky Meeting Unlikely, Fed Rate Cut Prospects, Reform UK's Business Appeal

Geopolitical Developments and Ukraine Conflict

• 🌍 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin is highly unlikely, despite previous suggestions.
• 💥 The deadliest Russian air strikes on Kyiv since July killed over 20 people and damaged EU and British Council buildings, highlighting the ongoing threat to Ukraine and Europe.
• 🇺🇸 The US has approved Ukraine's request to purchase up to $825 million worth of long-range missiles, utilizing a new mechanism for foreign military sales.
• 🇮🇷 European powers have referred Iran to the UN for potential reimposition of international sanctions due to non-compliance with nuclear program negotiations and inspector access.

US Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook

• 📉 Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports a quarter-percentage point rate cut in September and anticipates further reductions in the following months.
• ⚠️ Waller indicated openness to a larger half-point cut if US economic data shows significant deterioration, but currently believes a 25 basis point cut is sufficient.
• 📈 Despite political pressure on the Fed, US economic figures have been solid, driving stocks to a record high, with GDP increasing at a 3.3% pace in the second quarter.
• 🏛️ The Federal Reserve's independence faces scrutiny following attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook, who has filed a lawsuit alleging an illegal removal attempt.

UK Politics and Business Engagement

• 📈 Lobbyists are increasingly attending Reform UK's annual conference, signaling that corporate Britain is taking Nigel Farage's party more seriously as an electoral force.
• 📊 Polling shows a significant rise in public affairs executives planning to attend Reform UK's conference, now ahead of other minor parties and gaining on the Conservatives.
• 💼 Businesses are exploring Reform UK's influence and potential for engagement, with significant company spending on the party's conference.
• 🏦 A think tank suggests the UK government could raise billions by imposing a windfall tax on commercial lenders, adding to business concerns about potential tax increases.