Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend: Tariffs, 1929 Crash, Prediction Markets, and Restaurant Trends

Impact of Tariffs on Businesses

• ⚠️ Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly disrupted supply chains and increased costs for businesses, with one CEO reporting over $10 million in costs and a diversion of 30% of labor hours.
• 🎯 Small and mid-sized companies, like Learning Resources and Hand to Mind, have taken the lead in challenging these tariffs legally, citing the impact on their operations and employees.
• 🇺🇸 Business owners feel a strong sense of responsibility to their employees and communities, motivating them to speak out against policies they believe are harmful, even with potential repercussions.

Lessons from the 1929 Crash and Financial Crises

• 📉 While the structure of financial markets has changed significantly since 1929 with advancements in technology and regulations like the SEC and FDIC, the potential for crises remains.
• 🏦 A key difference is the massive national debt today, raising questions about the government's ability to intervene in a future crisis without severely impacting bond markets and interest rates.
• 📱 Technology, while offering real-time information, can also accelerate panic, as seen with the Silicon Valley Bank failure, where social media played a role in rapid withdrawals.
• 💡 The author emphasizes that leverage is the primary driver of systemic financial problems, acting as the match that ignites crises, regardless of other contributing factors.

Prediction Markets and Regulatory Challenges

• 📈 Prediction markets, like Kashi and Poly Market, have seen rapid growth, attracting both tech and traditional finance players, with users betting on a wide range of real-world outcomes.
• ⚖️ Regulators are grappling with the blurred lines between prediction markets and gambling, particularly concerning insider trading and the potential for manipulation, especially when individuals like CEOs can influence outcomes.
• 🌐 The regulatory landscape is complex, with the CFTC facing underfunding and differing approaches to oversight, leading to varied outcomes for markets based on their jurisdiction.

Trends in the US Restaurant Industry

• 🍽️ Counter service is emerging as a significant trend in 2026, driven by rising food and labor costs, offering a more streamlined and potentially more affordable dining experience.
• ♻️ Chefs are increasingly focusing on minimizing food waste, utilizing trimmings and compost to create dishes, reflecting both economic and environmental considerations.
• 🌟 While counter service grows, high-end dining and experiential concepts, like tasting menus and omakase, continue to exist, though prices may see some adjustments.

Ski Industry and Technological Innovation

• ⛷️ The ski industry faces challenges from inconsistent weather patterns due to climate change, making indoor ski resorts like Big Snow a stable alternative.
• 🤖 Agentic AI is poised to revolutionize trip planning and resort operations, with personalized agents brokering experiences and potentially leading to a more fragmented but hyper-personalized ski pass market.
• ☁️ Snow Partners is expanding its Snowcloud software technology, aiming to be the