Arseny Yatseniuk on Trump, Tomahawk Missiles, and Peace in Ukraine

The Significance of Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine

• 🎯 Tomahawk missiles are presented as a crucial element for Ukraine to achieve a fair and just peace.
• ⚠️ Failure to deliver these missiles would be a failure of the White House, not Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.
• ⚡ Providing Tomahawks is seen as a way to demonstrate the White House's seriousness to Putin and potentially turn the tables in the conflict.

Trump's Policy Shifts and Putin's Influence

• 🔄 Former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Steve Feifer, notes a shift in Donald Trump's rhetoric regarding aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
• ♟️ Feifer suggests that Vladimir Putin may have played the American president once again, lowering expectations for positive outcomes from the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.
• ❓ The transcript questions how Trump allows himself to be influenced by Putin, referencing past instances where Russian policy did not change despite Trump's deadlines.

Strategies for Zelenskyy in the Meeting

• 🤝 Zelenskyy needs to explain that Russia's position will not change unless Putin is convinced he cannot achieve his battlefield goals.
• 📈 Trump could help by increasing sanctions on Russia and providing more weapons to Ukraine, confronting Putin with the prospect of a prolonged and costly war.
• 💡 If the US refuses sanctions, Zelenskyy's options are limited, but Ukraine's situation, while difficult, is not necessarily impossible without immediate American support.

The Proposed Trilateral Meeting and Budapest Memorandum

• 🗺️ Yatseniuk discusses the potential for a trilateral meeting involving Trump and Putin, noting that Putin deliberately chose Budapest due to its withdrawal from the ICC and Orbán's close ties to Putin and Trump.
• 🛡️ The Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for guarantees of territorial integrity from Russia, is highlighted as a historical precedent of Russian non-compliance.
• ✈️ The logistics of Putin flying over EU airspace to reach Budapest are mentioned, with a question raised about whether his plane could be intercepted.

Ukraine's Need for Durable Peace and Deliverables

• 🕊️ Ukraine requires a durable and just peace, with an unconditional ceasefire as a first stage.
• ❓ The key question remains whether Trump has the tools and the readiness to exert pressure on Russia.
• 📊 Meetings are seen as a show; the focus must be on deliverables that bring Ukraine closer to peace.