Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Agreement: Analyst Explains Key Details and Challenges

Agreement Details and Implementation

• 🤝 The recent agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan hinges on Prime Minister Pashinyan's ability to gain domestic support, facing a tight timeline before Armenia's parliamentary elections.
• 🔑 A crucial element is the 43-kilometer section connecting Azerbaijan via Armenia's southern Syunik province to the exclave of Nakhchivan, with details on a potential 100-year lease to a consortium including American companies still to be revealed.
• 🗺️ The modalities for this transit corridor, potentially called the "Zangezur corridor" (a sensitive term for Armenia), are yet to be worked out in detail by dedicated working groups.

Outstanding Issues and Domestic Opposition

• ⚠️ The agreement does not directly address significant outstanding issues such as border delimitation, with Armenia claiming Azerbaijan unlawfully occupies territory.
• ⚖️ The status of Armenian prisoners in Azerbaijani custody, considered political prisoners by Armenia but criminals by Azerbaijan, remains unresolved.
• 📜 Azerbaijan's demand for the Armenian constitution to be purged of any mention of Nagorno-Karabakh presents a significant domestic challenge for Pashinyan.
• 📢 Pashinyan faces considerable domestic pressure and protests from both pro-Russian factions and nationalists, as well as from the Armenian diaspora, regarding normalization with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Regional Power Reactions

• 🇷🇺 Russia is likely displeased by being outmaneuvered and may attempt to unseat Pashinyan in the upcoming elections.
• 🇮🇷 Iran, weakened by US and Israeli strikes, is not in a position to actively oppose the initiative despite its unhappiness.
• 🇺🇸 The US administration has indicated interest from nine companies, including three American firms, in participating in the project, though safety and security of traffic remain unclear.