April Housing Starts, Import/Export Prices, and Interest Rate Outlook

April Housing Market Data

• 🏠 Housing starts for April came in at 1,361,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units, meeting expectations.
• ⚠️ Permits, however, were slightly lower than anticipated at 1,412,000, a sequential decrease from the previous report.
• 💡 The concept of being locked into low mortgage rates may be starting to wane, potentially influencing market dynamics.

Import and Export Price Trends

• 📈 Import prices on a month-over-month basis rose by 0.1%, higher than the expected decrease of 0.3% and the highest since February.
• ⚠️ Excluding petroleum, import prices increased by 0.4%, marking the highest level since April of the previous year.
• 📉 Export prices unexpectedly increased by 0.1% instead of the anticipated drop of 0.5%.
• 📊 Year-over-year, export prices were 2%, down from 2.6% in the prior look.

Interest Rate and Yield Analysis

• 📊 Ten-year Treasury yields were largely unchanged on the week, while two-year yields saw a slight increase.
• 📉 All maturities were lower in yield on the session, but yields have moved higher over the week.
• 🎯 The speaker believes interest rates will remain firm on the long end, projecting a range of 4.75% to 5%, and expects rates to stay above 4%.