April Empire State Manufacturing Survey Beats Expectations; Import Prices Show Mixed Trends

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

• 📊 The April Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in at -8.1, which was better than the expected -14.
• 💡 This figure represents an improvement from the previous reading of -20, indicating a less negative sentiment.
• ⚠️ The last positive number for this survey was 5.7 in January.

Import Prices Analysis

• 📉 Month-over-month, headline import prices decreased by 0.1%, contrary to expectations of being unchanged.
• 📈 However, the trend over the past several months has been upward, with January and February both showing increases of 0.4%.
• 🚫 Excluding petroleum, import prices were unchanged (0.0%), also falling short of the expected 0.3% increase.
• 🗓️ Year-over-year, import prices rose 0.9%, which is lower than the expected 1.5% and the best figure since last month's 2%.

Export Prices and Market Reaction

• 📈 Month-over-month export prices were unchanged, meeting expectations.
• 🚀 Year-over-year export prices increased by 2.4%, marking some of the strongest numbers since the end of 2022.
• 📊 Despite these economic data points, yields on the bond market showed little movement, with the 10-year yield at 4.37% (down 1 basis point).
• ⚠️ The speaker noted no immediate cause for extreme concern regarding bond market volatility or liquidity.