Anne Applebaum on Autocracy, Russia, China, and the Future of Democracy

The Network of Autocracies

• 🌐 Autocratic states, unlike historical Soviet blocs, form a network united not by ideology but by a shared opposition to checks and balances, democratic opposition, and the rule of law.
• 🤝 These regimes, including China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, cooperate through opportunistic interests, such as financial investments and the exchange of surveillance technology.
• 💡 Their primary commonality is a perceived threat from the language of rights, justice, and accountability, which they see as the language of their own oppositions.

Russia's Aggression and the Ukraine War

• 💥 The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is driven by Putin's desire for a new Russian Empire and a demonstration that he can violate international law (Geneva Conventions, UN Charter) with impunity.
• 📉 Russia's economic restructuring towards a wartime footing, while providing short-term focus, mirrors the Soviet Union's eventual collapse due to unsustainable military spending.
• ⚠️ There is currently no peace plan for the Ukraine war; it will end when Russia can no longer sustain its fight, not through a negotiated settlement that allows them to regroup.

The Erosion of Democracy and Autocratic Tactics

• 🎭 Autocratic leaders often engage in repetitive lying not to deceive, but to demonstrate power and create a sense of cynicism and nihilism among the populace.
• 💻 Advanced technologies, including internet monitoring and surveillance, are used to predict and suppress political dissent, with systems being sold to other authoritarian regimes.
• 💸 Kleptocracy and autocracy go hand-in-hand, with Western institutions often facilitating the movement and hiding of illicit funds through shell companies and tax havens.

The Battle of Ideas and Democratic Resilience

• 🗣️ Autocratic states actively disparage the West to counter the ideological threat posed by the language of democracy, rule of law, and human rights.
• 🇺🇸 In the US, trends toward authoritarianism include intimidation of election workers, the use of dehumanizing language against political opponents, and attempts by political parties to capture state institutions.
• 🌱 Reinforcing democratic resilience requires active citizen engagement at local levels, focusing on real-world issues, and fostering connections across political divides to counter mythology and polarization.