Angela Stent on Trump-Putin Summit: No Peace Deal Expected

Summit Preparation and Concerns

• ❓ The summit between President Trump and Vladimir Putin is noted for its lack of traditional preparation, with experienced diplomats seemingly absent.
• 💡 There's a concern that President Trump may not have sufficient backing or understanding of Putin's objectives going into the meeting.
• 🌍 European leaders are urging President Trump to approach the summit with a clear-eyed and realistic perspective on Putin's intentions.

Putin's Objectives and Negotiation Tactics

• 🎯 Putin's primary goal is seen as the subordination of Ukraine, which is viewed as a first step towards reclaiming influence and territory in the former Soviet Union.
• 📈 Putin is expected to probe President Trump to see how much he can gain, rather than signing a ceasefire agreement.
• 🤝 The negotiation style is described as Soviet-style: "What's mine is mine, and what is yours is negotiable."

Historical Parallels and Territorial Demands

• ⚠️ Allusions are made to the Munich Agreement of 1938, where Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler, suggesting a potential misunderstanding of expansionist aims.
• 🗺️ Putin is demanding that Ukraine cede its eastern Donbas region and Crimea as a condition for a ceasefire and negotiations.
• 🚫 Ukrainian President Zelensky has ruled out ceding territory, and European leaders support Ukraine's sovereignty.

The Role of President Zelensky and European Leaders

• 🗣️ President Zelensky has been excluded from the direct US-Russia summit discussions.
• 📞 Trump plans to confer with Zelensky and European allies by phone immediately after his meeting with Putin.
• 🤝 European leaders are concerned that Trump and Putin might strike a deal that ignores key Ukrainian demands.

Summit Dynamics and Public Perception

• 🎭 Despite potential underlying tensions, the summit is expected to involve public displays of cordiality, such as smiles and handshakes, similar to past interactions.
• ↔️ The seating arrangement is anticipated to be different from the famously long tables seen in some previous high-level meetings.