Angela Stent on Trump-Putin Summit: Diplomacy, Ukraine, and Putin's Aims

Pre-Summit Concerns

• 🎯 Putin's proposals to President Trump appear to involve Ukraine ceding territory Russia doesn't control, with little in return beyond a potential freezing of battle lines.
• 🧠 There's concern that President Trump may not fully grasp that Putin is unwilling to stop the war and that he might be "being played."
• ⚠️ The administration's preparedness for the summit is questioned, with a lack of experienced diplomats involved in the preparation.

Ukraine's Role and European Concerns

• 🚫 President Zelensky has been excluded from discussions about his own country, with the US and Russia talking without Ukrainian presence.
• 🇪🇺 European nations are attempting to impress upon President Trump the need for a clear-eyed and realistic approach to Putin's objectives.
• 🌍 The idea of two countries trading away another nation's territory without its involvement is highlighted as a significant point for consideration.

Historical Parallels and Putin's Strategy

• 🕰️ The situation is compared to the Munich Agreement of 1938, where Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler by ceding territory, a move that ultimately failed to prevent war.
• 📈 Putin's goal is seen as the subordination of Ukraine as a first step towards regaining influence and land in former Soviet territories, indicating expansionist aims.
• 🤝 Putin likely believes Trump desires a better relationship with Russia and will push as far as possible, using a Soviet-style negotiation tactic: "what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable."

Summit Dynamics and Potential Outcomes

• 🤝 While public appearances may involve smiles and handshakes, the underlying dynamics of the summit are uncertain.
• 🇷🇺 A scenario where a deal favorable to Russia is signed between the US and Russia, with Ukraine then blamed if it fails, is considered plausible.
• 🇺🇦 Ukrainians are unlikely to accept a disadvantageous deal, and Europeans are expected to back them.

Crimea and Concessions

• 🌊 The annexation of Crimea is seen as a de facto reality that the Trump administration may implicitly recognize, even if not explicitly discussed.
• 🛡️ Secretary Rubio is urged to ensure that concessions are not made to Putin that are unwarranted, acting as a restraining factor.