Anastasia Amoroso on Private Markets Outlook for 2026: PE, Private Credit, and Valuations

Private Markets Activity Surge

• 📈 Transaction volumes in private markets are estimated to increase by approximately 35% year-over-year, nearing 2021 levels in the US and potentially surpassing them in Europe.
• 🚀 Exit activity is also showing strong signs of recovery, with global M&A volumes up 40% year-over-year and the US IPO market rebounding by 70%.
• 💡 This improved environment for both deployment and exits is seen as highly supportive for private equity.

Valuation Landscape

• 📊 Valuations in private markets, specifically EV to EBITDA multiples for private equity-backed companies, are currently around 12 times.
• ⚖️ This contrasts with public markets, where multiples are closer to 17-18 times, suggesting a more attractive entry point for private equity investments.

Private Credit Market Dynamics

• 💬 Private credit has experienced significant growth, with Assets Under Management (AUM) expanding from approximately $600 billion to $1.7 trillion.
• ⚠️ Many negative headlines surrounding private credit are considered idiosyncratic or related to the broader leveraged loan market, rather than inherent issues within private credit itself.
• 📉 Despite market growth and associated headlines, the default rate within private credit, particularly for PE-backed companies, remains low, lingering around 1%.

Partners Group's Diversified Approach

• 🧩 Partners Group maintains exposure across various private market asset classes, including private equity, private credit, infrastructure, real estate, and royalties.
• 🎯 The firm addresses client questions regarding private credit, emphasizing the distinction between market-wide trends and specific company issues.