Analyst: Israel Counts on No Consequences from Washington for Actions

Current Geopolitical Spiral

• 💥 An out and out war is underway with little potential for de-escalation, described as entirely avoidable.
• ⚠️ The current situation is a consequence of a culture of impunity for contraventions of international law.
• ⚖️ Israel's actions, including devastating Gaza and occupying further territory in Lebanon and Syria, have gone without significant international consequences.

US Role and Enabling of Israel

• 🤝 The United States has enabled Israel's security architecture by being its main provider of weaponry and protecting it at the UN Security Council.
• 🚦 Washington did not give Israel a red light to act, but rather simply didn't give them a red light, implying tacit approval.
• 🚀 This lack of consequences from Washington emboldens Israel to continue its actions, as they count on the reality of no repercussions from Washington.

Israel's Aims and Capabilities

• 🎯 Israel has declared aims that are difficult to achieve unless regime change in Iran is the objective.
• ⛰️ Israel cannot currently take out Iran's most fundamental nuclear energy program facilities because they are deep within mountains and would require massive US-provided bombs.
• ⏳ The only actor that can stop Israel from persisting in its current course of action is Washington, but it currently seems uninterested.

Iran's Position

• 🤔 Iranians should be questioning their government's investment in proxies like Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, which failed to protect the population.
• 🪢 The Iranian regime is stuck between a rock and a hard place, with limited options for response.
• ❓ There are questions over Iran's appeal to Gulf States to ask Trump to pressure Netanyahu, with diplomatic sources casting doubt on this.