Alternative Labor and Inflation Statistics Amidst Government Shutdown

Impact of Government Shutdown on Economic Data

• ⚠️ The ongoing government shutdown, now 31 days old, has significantly limited the release of official economic data.
• 💡 However, alternative data sources are emerging to provide preliminary insights into labor and inflation statistics.

Preliminary Jobless Claims Data

• 📉 Haver Analytics, an economic data provider, has produced a preliminary estimate of initial jobless claims, showing a decline of 13,000 to 219,000, the lowest in a month.
• 📈 Conversely, continuing claims have risen by 11,000 to 1.96 million, reaching their highest level since August.
• 📌 These figures are estimates and may be re-evaluated once the government reopens and actual numbers are available.

Alternative Jobs and Inflation Index

• 📊 Troy Ludtka from SMBC Nikko Securities has developed an index using five regional Fed surveys, indicating a pickup in job growth.
• 💰 While prices have ticked down slightly, the inflation component of Ludtka's index remains elevated.
• 🔗 This index shows a correlation with CPI and suggests an acceleration in prices coinciding with tariffs, though the rate of increase has flattened.
• 🚀 New weekly ADP data also supports a rebound in job growth following a weak September.

Data Recovery and Future Insights

• ⏳ Even if the government reopens, there will be a delay in releasing all data series, with weekly jobless claims expected to resume quickly.
• 🗓️ The October jobs report (for November data) may be significantly delayed if operations do not resume soon.
• 🔍 The Troy Ludtka index is considered a valuable tool and a potential 'keeper' for understanding jobs and inflation, even after the shutdown.
• 🧐 This alternative data may provide a better indication of what to expect in upcoming reports like the Beige Book.
• ⚠️ A significant caveat remains regarding the impact of federal government layoffs and furloughs on October and November job numbers.