Alicia Levine on Market Volatility, Recession Odds, and Diversification in Client Portfolios

Market Volatility and Economic Outlook

• 📉 Stocks are experiencing volatility, with the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P futures showing declines.
• ⚠️ Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY Wealth, notes increased nerves surrounding upcoming White House announcements.
• 📊 BNY Wealth has lowered expectations for the S&P 500 for the year, now projecting a range of 6,000 to 6,400.
• 📈 While not the base case, the odds of a recession have been raised to 25%, influenced by deteriorating soft data and a lack of policy clarity.

Impact of Tariffs and Policy Uncertainty

• 💰 The potential for tariffs ranging from $600 billion to $700 billion could be difficult for markets to digest, representing approximately 2% of GDP.
• ⚖️ A lower tariff amount, between $150 billion and $200 billion, is seen as something the US economy can manage and continue to grow.
• 🗓️ April 2nd is identified as an event day expected to bring volatility, with the hope it will be a