Ali Vaez on US Regime Change Failures and Iran's Nuclear Program

Iran's History and Population Sentiment

• 🌍 Persia is an ancient nation with 7000 years of history, possessing a surprisingly pro-American population despite a nearly five-decade anti-American government.
• 🏛️ The Iranian government is authoritarian, with surveys indicating 85% of the population dislikes the current regime.
• ✊ A core group of 10-15% are true believers, driven by ideology or vested economic interests, committed to the system's survival.

US Track Record on Regime Change

• ❌ The US track record of engineering regime change in the Middle East is described as an abject failure.
• 🚫 External engineering of regime change is not advisable due to this history.
• 🚫 There is currently no viable, organized opposition inside or outside Iran capable of overthrowing the regime.

Diplomacy and the Iranian Government

• 🤝 The discussion touches on the idea of diplomacy with Iran, questioning whether talks are with the theocracy or the military.
• 🔗 Iran is characterized as a militarized theocracy, with a close coexistence between the clerical establishment and the Revolutionary Guards, forming a "deep state."
• 🗣️ Even Iran's foreign minister has ties to the Revolutionary Guards, highlighting the intertwined nature of power.

Impact of US Strikes on Nuclear Sites

• ❓ There are conflicting reports regarding the effectiveness and damage of US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
• 🔬 The IAEA and intelligence agencies cannot fully judge the damage from satellite images alone; inspectors are needed on the ground.
• ⚠️ However, it is confirmed that Iran moved a stockpile of near bomb-grade enriched uranium (400 kg) and possesses advanced centrifuges, which still provide a pathway to a bomb.