Alexander Gabuev on Putin's Strategy and Trump's Role in the Ukraine War

Russia's Largest Drone Attack

• 🎯 On Wednesday, Russia launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine, deploying over 700 drones and a dozen missiles.
• ⚠️ This attack occurred just a day after President Trump expressed significant unhappiness with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin's Perception of Trump and the Kremlin's Strategy

• 🧠 The impression in the Kremlin is that Russia needs to appeal to President Trump by massaging his ego and praising him.
• 🗣️ They aim to portray the war as Biden's fault and suggest Russia is grateful for Trump's past attempts to end the conflict on terms favorable to Russia.
• 📉 Russians have observed much rhetoric from the American side but no decisive action to push for peace negotiations acceptable to both the US and Ukraine.

Putin's War Aims and Subjugation of Ukraine

• 🚩 Putin believes he can achieve his war aims and impose peace on his conditions, which include the subjugation of Ukraine.
• ✂️ A key goal is to sever the connection between Ukraine's self-defense efforts and Western military intelligence and defense industries.
• 📉 The aim is to leave Ukraine as a rump state, perpetually under threat of Russian invasion, making it a "basket case" with no foreign investment.

Cutting Western Support for Ukraine

• ✂️ Putin's strategy involves cutting off the lifeline of Western military aid, intelligence, and defense production that supports Ukraine's army.
• 💡 This Western support is crucial for Ukraine's air defense, city protection, and inflicting damage on Russian forces.
• 💥 The West, particularly the US, provides critical intelligence and material like artillery shells, drones, and air defense systems.

Battlefield Dynamics and Western Military Aid

• 📈 Putin's generals reportedly believe the war is trending positively for Russia, despite significant Ukrainian losses.
• ⏳ They anticipate that Ukraine's self-defense efforts may falter by the fall, prompting Russia to push harder on the battlefield.
• 🛡️ Putin's primary concern is military pressure and arms to Ukraine, not additional sanctions, as he believes sanctions would lead to global economic recession.
• 🧱 The West can help Ukraine establish a defensive line, creating a stalemate that makes further Russian gains unappealing, but this requires substantial effort, especially from the US.
• 🚫 Putin hopes that Trump is unfit for the purpose of providing the necessary Western support to Ukraine.