Alabama's CFP Crisis: Josh Pate on Kalen DeBoer's Second Season

The "Saban Tax" and Alabama's Expectations

• 🎯 The "Saban Tax" refers to the lingering high expectations at Alabama, even after Nick Saban's departure, meaning any coach will face immense pressure.
• 📈 If Kalen DeBoer's second season results in another 9-3 record and a missed College Football Playoff, it would be perceived as an existential crisis for the program.
• ❓ It's questioned whether Saban himself would have achieved significantly better results than 9-3 in the previous season, given the close games and penalties.

Potential for Crisis Under DeBoer

• 🚨 A repeat of a 9-3 season under DeBoer would likely lead to significant fan unrest and questions about the future coaching direction, potentially impacting the athletic director.
• 📉 The aura of Alabama football, distinct from just being a good program, could diminish if they miss the playoff for a second consecutive year.
• 🔑 Despite the potential for crisis, the current staff is considered very good, and recruiting remains strong, suggesting positive downstream results should occur.

Recruiting and Staff Strength

• 🌟 Concerns about recruiting falling off a cliff after Saban's exit have been largely erased, with Alabama still attracting top talent and being a strong portal destination.
• 🛠️ The coaching staff assembled by DeBoer is highlighted as being exceptionally good, a key factor for future success.
• 🚀 The presence of Keon Russell as the quarterback of the future is seen as a positive indicator for the program's trajectory.

Josh Pate's Outlook for Alabama

• 🔮 While acknowledging the perception of crisis if they miss the playoff again, Josh Pate believes Alabama will likely be a playoff team this year.
• 📊 The simulation of seasons shows that 9-3 is within a cluster of possibilities, indicating it's not an unreasonable outcome but one that would still cause significant concern.
• 💬 The discussion emphasizes how quickly the perception of a program can shift, especially when transitioning from a legendary coach to a new era.