Africa's Coup Wave: Why Leaders Stay in Power and Regional Bodies Lose Clout

The Rise of Coup Leaders in Africa

• 📈 Since 2020, Africa has experienced a wave of 17 coup attempts, with 10 being successful, creating a significant incentive for military takeovers.
• 📌 A critical observation is that all coup leaders who have seized power in the past five years remain in control, overriding announced transitions and often winning subsequent elections.
• ⚠️ The prevailing context of impunity and amorality increases the risk that new leaders in countries like Guinea-Bissau will also seek to prolong their rule beyond initial transitional promises.

Regional Bodies' Diminished Influence

• 📉 Both the African Union (AU) and ECOWAS have demonstrated very little leverage over coup leaders on the continent.
• ⚡ ECOWAS's threat of military intervention in Niger in 2023 was called a bluff, leading Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to withdraw and form their own alliance.
• 📉 ECOWAS has since stepped back from threats and sanctions, realizing their ineffectiveness and attempting to persuade the three states to return, highlighting a significant loss of credibility and power since 2020.
• ⚖️ The AU has also faced criticism for inconsistent condemnation of coups, notably overlooking the unconstitutional takeover in Chad in 2021.

Drivers of the Current Coup Wave

• 🔄 A history of previous coups within a country significantly increases the likelihood of future attempts, creating a vicious cycle.
• 🏛️ The military often plays a central role, holding political positions and being perceived as the entity capable of resolving crises, including combating jihadist violence.
• 🌍 Global power competition incentivizes coup leaders, as they can expel Western actors and seek support from partners like Russia who are less concerned with democratic norms.

Filling the Power Vacuum

• 🤝 Power vacuums are quickly filled, with justifications for coups often citing corruption by state leaders.
• ⚔️ While Sahelian coup leaders claimed to combat jihadism, there has been an increase in Islamist violence in the region since their takeovers.
• 🌐 In Guinea-Bissau, the primary justification cited is combating organized crime and drug trafficking, rather than terrorism.