Aaron Miller on Middle East Peace Prospects and a Partial Deal

Prospects for a Partial Deal

• 💡 A partial deal involving a hostage release for a limited Israeli withdrawal and a reduction in military efforts in Gaza is considered possible.
• 🎯 This could potentially lead to an international stabilization force and a technocratic Palestinian government, but a broader peace agreement is still a distant goal.
• ⚡ There's a perceived sense of urgency in current negotiations that may not have been present previously.

US Presidential Influence and Diplomacy

• 🚀 The current administration's pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is described as virtually unprecedented compared to previous administrations.
• 🤝 This pressure is seen as a significant factor in the current diplomatic efforts, potentially influencing Netanyahu's willingness to engage.
• 🏆 While a Nobel Peace Prize nomination is mentioned, the focus is on the reality of diplomatic progress rather than the award itself.

Challenges to Lasting Peace

• 🔑 True peace requires heroic leadership with masters of their political houses, which is currently lacking in Israel, among Palestinians, and in Washington.
• 🚫 Without leadership changes, the situation is likely to remain one of managing the conflict rather than resolving it.
• 🧩 Resolving the five core issues (Jerusalem, borders, security, refugees, and recognition) requires leaders with significant reach and credibility, which are not currently visible.

Leadership and Future Scenarios

• ⚠️ Hamas is expected to remain in power, while the future of Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership is uncertain, despite his long tenure and potential to win another election.
• 💬 The current political landscape makes a comprehensive peace agreement, as understood by normal humans, hard to imagine.